Asia Times Online - Junta tries to score political points

Apr 9, 2010
Asia Times Online - Junta tries to score political points
By Larry Jagan

BANGKOK - As election fever grips Myanmar, the ruling junta is busy
preparing a series of steps, including an amnesty of political
prisoners, to try to make the vote more credible in the international
community.

This has become a priority after the opposition party National League
for Democracy (NLD), led by pro-democracy icon Aung San Suu Kyi,
decided to boycott the vote, whose date has yet to be announced.

The junta plans a mass amnesty of political prisoners, including high-
profile activists, according to a senior military source. "Everything
is set to take off after Thingyan [Buddhist new year in mid-April],"
said a senior Myanmar government official.

A military caretaker government will be announced in early May to run
the country until the poll and hand over power to the newly elected
civilian government, he said. Then, the pro-junta political party will
be formed after the new year. This will be followed by the release of
hundreds of political activists, he added.

But many in Myanmar's commercial center Yangon remain skeptical. "Why
should we care, nothing will change," said an elderly taxi driver, Min
Thu. "Burma [Myanmar] is unique," said 28-year-old teacher Maung Maung
Thein. "We'll have a president, but a president with no power," he
laughed.

There will only be 17 ministers in the caretaker military government,
said Myanmar military sources. Some incumbent ministers may stay in
place, but most will retire or enter politics.

The current prime minister, who is expected to retire, recently told
confidantes that he has to move out of his government residence in the
capital Naypyidaw, by the start of Thingyan festivities.

At least a dozen ministers, including Information Minister General
Kyaw Hsan, Interior Minister General Maung Oo and Agriculture Minister
General Htay Oo, are expected to resign to take up a political career.
The fifth top general and head of military intelligence, General Myint
Swe, is said to be destined to become prime minister in the interim
administration.

"Many major generals and colonels have been brought to the capital for
training in the past month," Burmese academic Win Min, based in the
northern Thai city of Chiang Mai, told Inter Press Service (IPS).
"Some will take over the ministries in the interim cabinet and others
will become politicians. "

Twenty-five percent of the seats in the new bicameral parliament are
reserved for serving soldiers, so some 200 officers will become
national parliamentarians. There are also 14 regional parliaments, all
with military men turned politicians.

More than 1,000 soldiers are enrolled in a school run by army chief
General Thura Shwe Man. "They are being taught parliamentary
procedures and civilian matters in readiness for their new role as
politicians, " said Win Min.

But most are unhappy to be seconded from the army, said a researcher
who has interviewed several retired officers. After five years - the
duration of the parliamentary term - these soldiers would expect to
return to the ranks, but fear they will have missed out on several
promotions as a result.

"I did not do my officer training to enter politics," said one colonel
confidentially. "I studied so I could become a general some day."

Several parties, including the Democrat Party and the National Union
Party, have submitted registration papers to the Electoral
Commission.

Though the main pro-junta party is yet to be formed, the pro-
government Union Solidarity and Development Organization is expected
to be the military's main vehicle in the election.

Its leader, the agriculture minister and confidante of senior general
Than Shwe, has repeatedly told visiting diplomats that he would become
a politician soon. He is tipped to become the new prime minister in
the "civilianized" government after the poll.

While the NLD's absence makes the election process neither credible
nor inclusive to many critics, it is what Than Shwe wanted all along.

In late March, the NLD - which won the 1990 poll but was never allowed
to form a government - decided against registering because doing so
under the election law would mean ditching Suu Kyi. The law bars
anyone serving a prison sentence - Suu Kyi is serving a sentence under
house arrest - from being a member of a political party.

She has spent more than 14 of the past 21 years in detention, and was
also prevented from contesting the 1990 vote because she was under
house arrest.

"The main aim of the junta's election laws is clearly to emasculate
the NLD and prevent their leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi from taking any
part in the forthcoming electoral process," said Justin Wintle, the
British biographer of the pro-democracy icon.

"The laws put the opposition in a very difficult position," said Scot
Marciel, the United States ambassador to the Association of Southeast
Asian Nations.

Than Shwe hopes to maintain the advantage by releasing political
prisoners in May. A list of names has been submitted to him, say
sources in the capital, Naypyidaw.

While some NLD activists are in the list, the vast majority are ethnic
rebels, those active in the 1988 democracy movement and former
military intelligence officers. The renowned comedian Zarganar is
almost certain to be among them. There will be key ethnic leaders too,
possibly even the Shan leader Khun Htun Oo.

Than Shwe hopes that some of them will run in the election so that it
looks more inclusive. But as a Burmese political analyst told IPS, the
Burmese are not that gullible. "The people will punish the
government," he said on condition of anonymity. "The payback will come
at the election."